India, the world’s biggest producer and second biggest seller, are likely to witness fall in cotton exports by 41 percent to a five-year low of 7 million bales this crop year ending September as China, the top buyer to curb purchases, according to government official.

Lower exports from India could support benchmark New York price that fell to a one-week low on Monday.

The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is set to suffer its steepest loss in at least six years from sales in the current season due to bulging world stockpiles and declining demand from China which intent on supporting its own growers.

India’s Textile Commissioner Kiran Soni Gupta on Tuesday revised downward the export forecast of 9 million bales made in October and said that the country will have to raise sales to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam which accounts for about 40 percent of the total exports currently.

Gupta further added that lower prices for Indian cotton may help boost shipments to these markets, despite dwindling demand from China.

India is expected to produce 39 million bales this crop year, down from the previous forecast of 40 million bales as yields suffered due to poor rains around the planting period late last year, Gupta said.

Domestic cotton demand is expected to rise about 7 percent to 32 million bales this crop year.